{"id":516,"date":"2010-02-21T18:05:49","date_gmt":"2010-02-21T16:05:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/avbp.net\/?p=516"},"modified":"2010-02-21T18:09:34","modified_gmt":"2010-02-21T16:09:34","slug":"book-review-storms-of-my-grandchildren-by-james-hansen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/avbp.net\/?p=516","title":{"rendered":"BOOK REVIEW Storms of My Grandchildren by James Hansen"},"content":{"rendered":"

THANKS TO ARCHIE DUNCANSSON<\/a> FOR THIS REVIEW reproduced by permission
\n<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>Storms of My Grandchildren by James Hansen, December 2009. <\/strong>In Storms of My Grandchildren<\/em>, James Hansen, 68 years old and one of the world\u2019s leading climate scientists,\u00a0 gives us the results of his lifelong work to understand the climate changes that are now\u00a0 occurring, and offers advice on how to minimize them. As a scientific description of climate science\u00a0 and climate change, this book is one of the best, written in an accessible tone with excellent metaphors\u00a0 and simple explanations that non-technical readers can easily understand. But Hansen also\u00a0 provides the depth and detail that make the book interesting to readers with more background and\u00a0 previous reading in climate science. What also makes this book both enjoyable and unusual is that it\u00a0 reads almost like a suspense story, we are pulled along through the more detailed explanations by\u00a0 Hansen\u2019s teacher-like encouragements (\u201cBear with me a few paragraphs more, or if you don\u2019t have\u00a0 the patience, skip to the next section\u201d) and by his candid accounts of a decades long effort to make\u00a0 politicians aware of the seriousness of the climate problems facing humanity. Along the way, Hansen\u00a0 takes up in the book, as he has done in real life, the major arguments of the climate contrarians\u00a0 (sceptics), and puts them to rest with indisputable facts and clear logic. At the same time, he is ever\u00a0 the honest scientist and teacher, taking pains to show where the data is poor (for example, concerning\u00a0 aerosols, needed to accurately calculate the net heat balance of the earth) and where the models\u00a0 lack realism (for example, in describing the melting of ice-sheets). On the whole Hansen argues\u00a0 mostly from historic data, referring back to earlier geologic periods in the earth\u2019s history when the\u00a0 climate changed, and uses models only to study hypothetical events or special questions.<\/p>\n

This empirical approach is highly convincing. Thus are we led to understand that the current\u00a0 climate, with a warming of a 0,7 degree C, is near the highest of this <\/em>interglacial period (the last\u00a0 12000 years) and probably about like previous interglacial warm periods. Those warmings, however,\u00a0 were caused by gradual, small changes in the tilt in the earth\u2019s axis and in its orbit, and thus\u00a0 were temporary, while our current warming, caused by mankind\u2019s release of CO2 into the atmosphere,\u00a0 is still on the rise and will not stop until centuries or millennia after we stop putting CO2\u00a0 into the air. We find that the 2 degrees so much talked-about by politicians is not <\/em>a safe limit, but\u00a0 what Hansen calls \u201ca disaster scenario\u201d, since the last time the earth was that hot, around 3 million\u00a0 years ago in the Middle Pliocene period, sea level was 25 meters higher than today and earth was \u201ca\u00a0 different planet\u201d.<\/p>\n

What is a safe limit, then? Hansen today argues for 350 ppm CO2 (note: less than the current\u00a0 concentration of 387 ppm) corresponding to about a 1 degree <\/em>maximum warming (0,7 already, the\u00a0 rest will come gradually in decades ahead). The reason: the earth systems are non-linear and almost\u00a0 certainly have tipping points, beyond which change speeds up, reinforcing itself, and taking the\u00a0 climate to another state. The key factors affecting these tipping points are: 1) ice sheet melting 2)\u00a0 methane hydrates on the ocean floor (and in the frozen tundra). These are wild cards, since the current\u00a0 warming apparently is occurring ten or a hundred times faster than earlier warmings in earth\u2019s\u00a0 history. Research on these factors is scanty and current models do not include them. Their major\u00a0 effects, however, are well known: a speeding up of the warming <\/em>(the uncertainties concern the\u00a0 temperatures at which they begin, how fast they proceed and the time needed to reach a final state).\u00a0 Pointing to Arctic summer ice melting, mountain glacial melting, coral reefs dying and measured\u00a0 warming on land, Hansen says: \u201cRelevant scientists\u2014those who know what they are talking about\u00a0 \u2014realize that the climate system is on the verge of tipping points.\u201d Therefore are we strongly\u00a0 advised to limit ourselves to 1-degree, only slightly above where we are now.<\/p>\n

Interwoven in the scientific explanation of climate change, Hansen tells the story of his only\u00a0 moderately-successful attempts to make the public aware of global warming and get climate change\u00a0 put on the political agenda. Hansen\u2019s experience indicates, sadly, that national governments, in the\u00a0 U.S. and elsewhere, are largely uninterested in real, effective action. He attributes this to money:\u00a0 special interest groups (coal, oil, \u2026) use lobbyists to convince politicians that climate change is\u00a0 uncertain, natural and not dangerous. And as with the tobacco industry earlier, vested interests seek\u00a0 to keep the issue seen in the media and the public eye as an open issue to be debated, not an imminent\u00a0 danger to be acted upon.<\/p>\n

Time and again, Hansen urges young people to take charge of their\u00a0 own futures by voting new politicians into the arena and putting new, transparent, politics to work,\u00a0 going back to the original ideal of the American revolution: one man, one vote (in which special\u00a0 interests could not rule). Young people yes, but this is something at which we can all work, regardless\u00a0 of age.<\/p>\n

What shall we work for, in the political agenda? First, to phase out coal until the emissions can\u00a0 be successfully captured and safely stored\u2014that means a moratorium on new coal plants <\/em>today\u00a0 since there are currently no capture and storage facilities in operation\u2014it is only an idea. Second,\u00a0 put a price on carbon<\/em>, through taxes at the source <\/em>(the mine, oil well, port of import, etc.). This will\u00a0 work to the disadvantage of fossil fuels so that they gradually will be phased out. Such taxes can be\u00a0 implemented nationally, then successively adjusted to be fair (in the sense of international business\u00a0 competition) through bilateral and international agreements.<\/p>\n

Hansen believes the Kyoto idea of cap\u00a0 and trade is hot air\u2014political greenwash intended to give the impression of doing something, while\u00a0 not changing anything at all (emissions have in fact continued to rise since Kyoto was agreed upon\u00a0 1992). Third, a crash program on fourth generation (breeder reactor) nuclear power <\/em>that runs on\u00a0 uranium waste from old reactors plus from decommissioned nuclear weapons, and generates almost\u00a0 no long-lived waste. The purpose would be to develop a cost-competitive, standard reactor that\u00a0 could be readily and quickly deployed around the developing world (particularly in China and\u00a0 India) instead of building more coal-fired plants<\/em>. Coal is currently the cheapest power source, and\u00a0 the one that developing nations are using to build their economies on. Hansen\u2019s plug for breeder\u00a0 reactors may be hard to understand or swallow for many environmentalists, accustomed to thinking\u00a0 of nuclear power as the costliest, most dangerous mistake of the past century.<\/p>\n

But perhaps we\u00a0 should read up more on this issue , and even supposing an unfavourable review, accept nuclear\u00a0 research and development as one of many lines to pursue, in order to not prematurely close the door\u00a0 on anything which might <\/em>help us out of a the big bind we are in.\u00a0 Regardless of how one feels on the nuclear issue, Hansen\u2019s integrity and genuine concern for his\u00a0 grandchildren and ours shine throughout this important book and make it probably the best available\u00a0 work for understanding both the climate science and the politics behind the current state of\u00a0 inaction at national and international levels. (A less technical description of the science, but not the\u00a0 politics, can be found in Mark Lynas\u2019 excellent Sex Degrees<\/em>).<\/p>\n

It is well worth reading, even if you\u00a0 choose other political priorities on the details of how to phase out fossil fuels on a planetary scale.\u00a0 Hansen\u2019s main political message is that if we are to avoid dangerous climate change, most of the\u00a0 oil, gas and coal must remain in the ground<\/em>. Since we cannot expect the owners of fossil fuels to\u00a0 stop selling them, we must tax and legislate them out of existence, and provide workable alternatives\u00a0 for all of us to live on in the near and foreseeable future. Otherwise, our children and grandchildren\u00a0 will see increasingly violent storms, exacerbated by rising sea level that will make life\u00a0 more costly, more difficult and more unpredictable than it already is on this crowded blue planet,\u00a0 third from the sun.\u00a0 N.B.: Dr. James Hansen is a brave man who has fought censure and intimidation through much\u00a0 of his career, and kept speaking out in the service of what he believed in. Now, with this book, he\u00a0 writes for his and our grandchildren. Much of what he writes is available free online at his website:\u00a0 www.columbia.edu\/~jeh1<\/a>. For a short description of his criticism of \u201cpolitics as usual\u201d, see the\u00a0 November 2009 article: Is there any real chance of averting the climate crisis? listed on that\u00a0 website.<\/a><\/p>\n

Archie Duncanson, Stockholm, February 2010<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

THANKS TO ARCHIE DUNCANSSON FOR THIS REVIEW reproduced by permission Storms of My Grandchildren by James Hansen, December 2009. In Storms of My Grandchildren, James Hansen, 68 years old and one of the world\u2019s leading climate scientists,\u00a0 gives us the results of his lifelong work to understand the climate changes that are now\u00a0 occurring, and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[6,12,4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-516","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-essential-science","category-ideas","category-why-we-need-change"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/avbp.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/516"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/avbp.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/avbp.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/avbp.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/avbp.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=516"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/avbp.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/516\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":521,"href":"https:\/\/avbp.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/516\/revisions\/521"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/avbp.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=516"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/avbp.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=516"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/avbp.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=516"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}