Having recently attended two conferences arranged by the Swedish Energy Ministry and read a good deal in the daily press I would like to summarize my general impressions of attitudes to the energy situation in Sweden. These are purely my own reflections, and not the expressed opinions of anyone in the Ministry or invited speakers.<\/p>\n
Basically, there is an \u201cA plan\u201d and a \u201cB plan\u201d. Many are on the fence as to which is the best to follow, and as A represents \u201cBusiness as usual\u201d fence sitters are de facto on the \u201cA plan\u201d side.<\/p>\n
The \u201cA plan\u201d goes roughly like this: whilst we accept that economic growth does not in itself bring life quality and living standards increases, it does offer the best conditions for improving living standards and life quality. Alternatives like the planned economies of the Communist era have proved a failure and a dead end as a tool for development. Energy intensity proportion of GDP is declining, so we take this as evidence that economic growth can continue even as energy prices hike. The Swedish economy is robust enough to cope with outsourcing to China and other threats by re-inventing its services and selling value-add back to, for example, the Chinese. Supplies of energy at least for the next 20 years will be plentiful, cheap and in surplus of demand.<\/p>\n
The system we live under today, the capitalistic and debt-based economy, will work well even without increasing supplies of cheap energy. Swedes will not feel any pain from rising energy prices. Investment in alternatives will force through all necessary changes. Living standards will be maintained or slightly better in the next decades. Therefore the compelling argument is for the \u201cA plan\u201d: Business As Usual.<\/p>\n
Under the \u201cA plan\u201d environmental goals of CO2 output will not be met but the A planners do not really accept there is evidence that energy intensity is destabilizing the global climate.<\/p>\n
The \u201cB plan\u201d looks hard at the mathematics of energy supplies. The intensive users of energy today (Sweden included) are increasingly dependant on these huge amounts of energy for the way they live. This makes them vulnerable because 1) as they are not the energy suppliers a free market says the buyer can dictate price as scarcity arises and 2) suppliers are not always close allies. B planners point at how rises in energy prices always reduce economic growth and reducing economic growth always increases unemployment, poverty, etc. Those with less will feel inequalities harder but everyone will feel the pinch.<\/p>\n
B planners point to Peak Oil, – discoveries of oil are dwindling as production is increasing. Sooner or later production will start to fall compared to demand. We need to get ourselves off fossil fuel energy intensity while we can. If we wait to long, we will not have the economic resources to invest in alternatives.<\/p>\n
A framework plan for reducing energy intensity (renewables cannot be used at the level fossil fuels are) is therefore the \u201cB plan\u201d. And we should start now. The Prime Minister\u2019s announced intention to be oil independent by 2020 is an example of a \u201cB plan\u201d.<\/p>\n
Under the \u201cB plan\u201d, environmental goals of reducing CO2 output will be met naturally as the amount of fossil carbon needed to be burnt to cause more global warming is simply not available.<\/p>\n
Sweden is in an interesting situation, where the Government is calling for a \u201dB plan\u201d to be followed, but experts are saying the \u201dA plan\u201d will not cause enough hurt for anyone to want to abandon it. Watch this space.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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