Posted by steve on March 8, 2010
This is an extract from my presentation as Application Manager of the Water and Food Award at the recent Ambassadors event at the Marriott hotel in Copenhagen on 2 March 2010.
They say that at the beginning of every century, major changes, inconceivable in the previous century, manifest themselves. In the last century few thought man could fly, but here we are! What are the inconceivable changes awaiting us in this century? We hear people saying that feeding everyone on the planet is one of these grand challenges that we inconceivably can win over. At present, over one billion are starving and the population is set to increase in our lifetimes, or the lifetimes of the generation after ours, to nine billion.
Our task at WAF is bring attention to the situation and the challenge in a way that offers a message of hope. That means promoting sustainable solutions to feeding the planet. But what is a sustainable situation? WAIT! There is more to read… read on »
Posted by steve on February 21, 2010
THANKS TO ARCHIE DUNCANSSON FOR THIS REVIEW reproduced by permission
Storms of My Grandchildren by James Hansen, December 2009. In Storms of My Grandchildren, James Hansen, 68 years old and one of the world’s leading climate scientists, gives us the results of his lifelong work to understand the climate changes that are now occurring, and offers advice on how to minimize them. As a scientific description of climate science and climate change, this book is one of the best, written in an accessible tone with excellent metaphors and simple explanations that non-technical readers can easily understand. But Hansen also provides the depth and detail that make the book interesting to readers with more background and previous reading in climate science. What also makes this book both enjoyable and unusual is that it reads almost like a suspense story, we are pulled along through the more detailed explanations by Hansen’s teacher-like encouragements (“Bear with me a few paragraphs more, or if you don’t have the patience, skip to the next section”) and by his candid accounts of a decades long effort to make politicians aware of the seriousness of the climate problems facing humanity. Along the way, Hansen takes up in the book, as he has done in real life, the major arguments of the climate contrarians (sceptics), and puts them to rest with indisputable facts and clear logic. At the same time, he is ever the honest scientist and teacher, taking pains to show where the data is poor (for example, concerning aerosols, needed to accurately calculate the net heat balance of the earth) and where the models lack realism (for example, in describing the melting of ice-sheets). On the whole Hansen argues mostly from historic data, referring back to earlier geologic periods in the earth’s history when the climate changed, and uses models only to study hypothetical events or special questions.
This empirical approach is highly convincing. Thus are we led to understand that the current climate, with a warming of a 0,7 degree C, is near the highest of this interglacial period (the last 12000 years) and probably about like previous interglacial warm periods. Those warmings, however, were caused by gradual, small changes in the tilt in the earth’s axis and in its orbit, and thus were temporary, while our current warming, caused by mankind’s release of CO2 into the atmosphere, is still on the rise and will not stop until centuries or millennia after we stop putting CO2 into the air. We find that the 2 degrees so much talked-about by politicians is not a safe limit, but what Hansen calls “a disaster scenario”, since the last time the earth was that hot, around 3 million years ago in the Middle Pliocene period, sea level was 25 meters higher than today and earth was “a different planet”.
What is a safe limit, then? Hansen today argues for 350 ppm CO2 (note: less than the current concentration of 387 ppm) corresponding to about a 1 degree maximum warming (0,7 already, the rest will come gradually in decades ahead). The reason: the earth systems are non-linear and almost certainly have tipping points, beyond which change speeds up, reinforcing itself, and taking the climate to another state. The key factors affecting these tipping points are: 1) ice sheet melting 2) methane hydrates on the ocean floor (and in the frozen tundra). These are wild cards, since the current warming apparently is occurring ten or a hundred times faster than earlier warmings in earth’s history. Research on these factors is scanty and current models do not include them. Their major effects, however, are well known: a speeding up of the warming (the uncertainties concern the temperatures at which they begin, how fast they proceed and the time needed to reach a final state). Pointing to Arctic summer ice melting, mountain glacial melting, coral reefs dying and measured warming on land, Hansen says: “Relevant scientists—those who know what they are talking about —realize that the climate system is on the verge of tipping points.” Therefore are we strongly advised to limit ourselves to 1-degree, only slightly above where we are now.
Interwoven in the scientific explanation of climate change, Hansen tells the story of his only moderately-successful attempts to make the public aware of global warming and get climate change put on the political agenda. Hansen’s experience indicates, sadly, that national governments, in the U.S. and elsewhere, are largely uninterested in real, effective action. He attributes this to money: special interest groups (coal, oil, …) use lobbyists to convince politicians that climate change is uncertain, natural and not dangerous. And as with the tobacco industry earlier, vested interests seek to keep the issue seen in the media and the public eye as an open issue to be debated, not an imminent danger to be acted upon.
Time and again, Hansen urges young people to take charge of their own futures by voting new politicians into the arena and putting new, transparent, politics to work, going back to the original ideal of the American revolution: one man, one vote (in which special interests could not rule). Young people yes, but this is something at which we can all work, regardless of age.
What shall we work for, in the political agenda? First, to phase out coal until the emissions can be successfully captured and safely stored—that means a moratorium on new coal plants today since there are currently no capture and storage facilities in operation—it is only an idea. Second, put a price on carbon, through taxes at the source (the mine, oil well, port of import, etc.). This will work to the disadvantage of fossil fuels so that they gradually will be phased out. Such taxes can be implemented nationally, then successively adjusted to be fair (in the sense of international business competition) through bilateral and international agreements.
Hansen believes the Kyoto idea of cap and trade is hot air—political greenwash intended to give the impression of doing something, while not changing anything at all (emissions have in fact continued to rise since Kyoto was agreed upon 1992). Third, a crash program on fourth generation (breeder reactor) nuclear power that runs on uranium waste from old reactors plus from decommissioned nuclear weapons, and generates almost no long-lived waste. The purpose would be to develop a cost-competitive, standard reactor that could be readily and quickly deployed around the developing world (particularly in China and India) instead of building more coal-fired plants. Coal is currently the cheapest power source, and the one that developing nations are using to build their economies on. Hansen’s plug for breeder reactors may be hard to understand or swallow for many environmentalists, accustomed to thinking of nuclear power as the costliest, most dangerous mistake of the past century.
But perhaps we should read up more on this issue , and even supposing an unfavourable review, accept nuclear research and development as one of many lines to pursue, in order to not prematurely close the door on anything which might help us out of a the big bind we are in. Regardless of how one feels on the nuclear issue, Hansen’s integrity and genuine concern for his grandchildren and ours shine throughout this important book and make it probably the best available work for understanding both the climate science and the politics behind the current state of inaction at national and international levels. (A less technical description of the science, but not the politics, can be found in Mark Lynas’ excellent Sex Degrees).
It is well worth reading, even if you choose other political priorities on the details of how to phase out fossil fuels on a planetary scale. Hansen’s main political message is that if we are to avoid dangerous climate change, most of the oil, gas and coal must remain in the ground. Since we cannot expect the owners of fossil fuels to stop selling them, we must tax and legislate them out of existence, and provide workable alternatives for all of us to live on in the near and foreseeable future. Otherwise, our children and grandchildren will see increasingly violent storms, exacerbated by rising sea level that will make life more costly, more difficult and more unpredictable than it already is on this crowded blue planet, third from the sun. N.B.: Dr. James Hansen is a brave man who has fought censure and intimidation through much of his career, and kept speaking out in the service of what he believed in. Now, with this book, he writes for his and our grandchildren. Much of what he writes is available free online at his website: www.columbia.edu/~jeh1. For a short description of his criticism of “politics as usual”, see the November 2009 article: Is there any real chance of averting the climate crisis? listed on that website.
Archie Duncanson, Stockholm, February 2010
Posted by steve on February 16, 2010
What would it look like if we set up the economy to drive the change towards sustainability? What would we invest in, what would we pay for? Would banks have another role?
I set myself the assignment of creating a vision of things to come, and decided to approach it using the techniques of imagestreaming. What follows is the imagestream tapescript re-written as a story. For more information on the units of trust instrument please see the UOT information page.
THE EXHIBITION
In this imagestream I wish to address the dichotomy between industrial thinking and sustainable thinking. Many have been brought up in the industrialized world and find it hard to imagine alternatives. And yet alternatives are needed; industrialization cannot go on forever. In industrialized thinking you are a worker, you own a house maybe, shares or funds. You are a citizen and can vote. To maintain your lifestyle you have to consume.
If someone wanted to use their money to invest in an organization or opportunity that would give them a sustainable return on investment what would be available to them?
I imagine this particular investment would be in real assets, generate energy, housing and food or transport in a sustainable way. Possibly, their value increases over time compared to fossil fuel powered alternatives or your investment would give a dividend in the form of these services.
Anyway, investing in these organizations and or instruments would give you food, housing or transport (energy) as well as an asset that increased in value over time.
THE QUEST is to visit a place where these kinds of opportunities, instruments and schemes are used successfully to offer individuals, though individual investment, the opportunity to sustainably generate their living standards and constitute an investment for their kids and the future. These investments themselves have monetary value that should increase over time.
TAPESCRIPT
I am in the arrival hall, looking for a lift. I’m attracted to a dark red exhibition stand. An exhibition booth. A sign over the entrance says “Investing in the Future”.
I go in, a man is standing at a table, he hands me a brochure.
“Are you interested in investing in the future?” he asks.
“I certainly am” I say. He chuckles a bit, which makes me feel uneasy.
The brochure contains pictures of wind power, water power etc. He invites me to proceed further into the stand. A few people are milling around with drinks and snacks. Screens are showing pictures of sustainable ventures.
I get a cheese on a stick to nibble and a glass of non-alcoholic cider.
It’s all very informal – it seems the idea is to entice passers-by into the stand.
Investment in the future – a DVD playing talks about oil, its depletion and the effects on everyone’s economy, about population pressure on the planet etc.
… However, there IS a way using renewable solutions, but we must construct them now while there is still time, for your children’s sake. Before it is too late
…We already have this place going and more examples. You are being invited to join, if you like.
I feel a sense of mistrust …maybe it’s too good to be true ….or the way the guy laughed. An oxymoron to invest in the future isn’t it – what about now?
Still, it seems to be well grounded. A paper talks about number of working hours, your work, how you use your time, what you can get from this use of time, with many tables and graphs. In fact, it looks rather like an investment brief.
I browse though it, looking at graphs of future price of oil contra renewables. (I know from experience that trying to read documents in an image stream is rather difficult so I concentrate on the pictures.) Another shows the number of hours you have to work to get your daily bread and the role oil plays in that. The higher oil prices rise, the less you can buy with your hour. And then it asks you what sort of life you want, and looks at the available choices.
I suppose this is a chance to browse the material and look at the videos showing places already functioning along these lines.
You can just simply sign up. I look at a paper, which says you can buy a unit or a number of units. The accompanying application form asks for your name, address and other details, and your signed request to purchase. That is all you need to get in the system.
I wonder what I would do with my unit when I have purchased it. Someone takes me aside to explain.
“What will I get for my money?” I ask.
“You become a unit holder, sir. The stands in the next part of the exhibition explain what unit holders get back from their investment.”
This stand extends into a larger, white exhibition space behind the red one. I take the investment brief and the form and move on. Each exhibitor has a table and exhibition space behind them, arranged around the outside and in the centre of the area.
People are milling around handing out brochures for various things.
At the first table someone is planning an eco unit. Depending on the number of units you have invested you can do different things in the eco unit. (Editor’s note see link to explain what an eco-unit is – an ecological village self sufficient in food.) You buy a unit for a certain amount of money. From there on there is no counting in money. You can always compare to monetary value, though. In this case, to put myself in the queue to live on an eco-unit I have to have a certain number of units saved.
This queue is not yet full, they are building a total of 80 houses. One of these trust units would give me a certain number of points which I could redeem for a share in their excess food produce for example. However, it is not enough to have purchased a trust unit. I must have it placed with this organization.
Depending on how many units I place, I get points back which I can redeem against holiday, produce and way in to buy and own a house on the eco-unit. I could also save points to contribute towards retiring to an eco-unit.
The next one is a sailing boat, a big beautiful boat. To join the scheme you place one unit with this organization. Its main purpose is to carry freight sustainably. This scheme is already going- The boat is long, wind powered, and if you invest in it you can join the crew. You can have a holiday on her or help out for good, physical, fun, If you crew you get points. These can be redeemed for produce from other organizations. A video is showing the boat … come on board… it’s beautiful … wonderful investment … just have a holiday … travel …crew .. we all need boats.
Continuing though the exhibition I am drawn to a table behind me about growing food.
A person on the stand explains the scheme provides a system for growing vegetables close to your home. Place in this scheme and you get a whole kit of pots and stuff.
If you invest in this scheme you get utilitas – that is to say, you do not own the equipment but you get the right to use it. (I have difficulty snapping up the phrase is it utitas or ulitas?) If you invest in the organisation you get the opportunity to enjoy some of the capital.
Over the other side of the hall, a wind farm catches my attention. You place your unit in the wind farm and get the right to have a wind turbine. You do not own the turbine but you have a right to use it.
I am picking up a principle here that seems to apply throughout the examples I have seen so far– one of not actually owning anything but having a right to use things.
In this case with the wind turbines, I will earn points by putting energy back to the grid. They install the machine in your house, on your property. The energy goes back to the grid for points.
The system is simple: a wind turbine and solar panels on your roof produce electricity. The electricity you do not use feeds into the grid to earn you points.
I start to grasp the significance of the whole unit trust set-up. One unit costs about 10,000 SEK (say 900 Euros). That is quite a bit of money, but many pay that for a TV so it is affordable. It is not as if you pay once and the money is gone. This is a very secure way of investing. Because if you remove your unit from the organization then they remove the things from your house, but you can still place the unit elsewhere.
That brings me to muse about the food bit, how home growing works. I notice a stand presenting “Local Food schemes” and walk over to it.
The stand looks like a market stall and demonstrates how the points system works across local organizations. If you invest in a Local Food Scheme, as a grower, you can sell your produce for points in the market. If a Local Food Scheme is effective and produces a lot of food, many points will accumulate. These can be swapped with the Local Housing Scheme. I start to see that although the Unit Trust organization is national, it is the local network of organizations that must “join up the dots”.
A Local Housing Scheme (LHS) can buy an apartment block, and instead of paying rent you redeem points. The reason for this is, in the future you may not have the money to pay rent or energy bills.
Or if you all own flats in an apartment block you can place units in the LHS and they will help to convert the block to low energy and take over everyday running, maintenance and upgrades.
Some advisors are walking around, I ask one:
“So can I check I have this right? I buy units, and then I have to choose where I place them. Placing my units gives me back sustainable goods and services.”
“That is correct,” she replies.
“But I never ever loose my unit. I can take it out and put it in another one?”
She smiles: ¨Where you place units depends on your state of life. You can buy units with points or use the points for consumption.”
I ask about tax but she thinks I should come back another time for that one.
She adds: “It is the unit trust (as she calls it), this organization, that puts on these events.”
“So you market yourselves this way in these exhibitions?”
She explains that they put on these exhibitions and market via traditional channels. They talk to existing organizations, cooperatives or companies and explain the benefits to them of joining. They these organisations join the scheme by purchasing units in the unit trust.
I ask for an idea of how my organization would go about joining.
She explains: “You get a number of points related to the number of people who want to invest in you. The unit trust does not invest in your company. Your organization gets a chance to meet a number of investors via us. You invest in us, and keep your unit placed with us.
Our role then is one of matchmaker.”
She explains that organizations come away from an exhibition with a local contact person, address to the website, and already an idea of how to place their unit.
I thank her and leave.
READ MORE ABOUT THE IDEAS HERE
Posted by steve on February 9, 2010
Energy is going to get more expensive unless you own your own renewable energy sources, like windmills or hydropower. Energy is needed for four major phases of a product’s life-cycle: extraction of materials, manufacture, operation and disposal/recyling.
This means that products developed will migrate into the two areas where energy use is less, over the life-time of the product.
This matrix divides products and services up depending on energy required to make and run them. What will happen as energy prices rise? Products that require a lot of energy to make and run will less affordable. These “make once, run expensively” types of products will migrate to the quadrants on the right. The “make once, run cheaply” or “make cheaply, use cheaply” will take over.
The same thing with products that are inexpensive to buy, but have a high running cost. Already oil lamps are being replaced in Bangladesh by solar panels, which cost more in the beginning, but pay off over a longer period. This is possible thanks to some clever financing from Grameen Bank, where users pay the solar panels in instalments equivalent to what they would pay for the oil. Instead of an empty lamp, they get a working solar panel.
Aim to migrate your purchase or product offering. Think about it today.
Posted by steve on February 8, 2010
Sustainability, it seems, costs money. I have heard that business leaders have been bombarded with in-depth training lasting weeks, costing thousands and deflecting a sizeable chunk of your attention from focus on results.
Sustainabilty is something built in to every human as a survival tool. Most need a quick sharp introduction to get up and running. And we need to get running, the Industrial Capitalism models of doing business, temporarily made possible by cheap energy, are starting to show their age.
If you are an executive responsible for guiding your organisation through today’s choppy waters you need to have good insight into sustainability. We believe it is either the future your organisation is going to develop into or the “black swan” of unexpected surprises that upset the apple cart of a cherished Buisiness as Usual.
Our short briefing will get you started on charting your organisation’s path into the future and actioning what needs to be done in a timely fashion
Order an in- house session or attend one of our scheduled briefings, lasting from one to three days.
READ MORE
Posted by steve on January 24, 2010
With energy availability peaking and demand still rising, many are promoting the idea of transitioning to the low carbon economy. But what are the priorities? Light bulbs? Ethanol cars? From my perspective we should be concentrating on that which we need everyday and that takes at least one quarter of our weekly budget: food and water. Food and water security should be the cornerstone of sustainable development. Already the system is failing and one billion of six billion go to bed hungry of an evening. How can we expect to support a growing population on less fossil fuel that costs more? We should start now, we have little time to loose.
Let me start with a few key concepts and then go on to explain why NOW is the time to work to create water and food security globally, and to set up the provision of water and food up so it is not fossil fuel dependent.
Key concept – Water and food security
Water security is closely linked to food security: During the second half of the 20th century, world population had a twofold increase, agriculture doubled food production and developing countries increased per capita food consumption by 30 percent. However, while feeding the world and producing a diverse range of non-food crops such as cotton, rubber and industrial oils in an increasingly productive way, agriculture also confirmed its position as the biggest user of water on the globe. Irrigation now claims close to 70 percent of all freshwater appropriated for human use.
Source: Land and Water Division FAO
Food security is one of the cornerstones of society for health, peace and prosperity. People who are well fed are also people with the means to change their situation.
Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. Household food security is the application of this concept to the family level, with individuals within households as the focus of concern. Source: FAO
Key concept – sustainable development
The Bruntland commission defined sustainable development thus: “Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.
A more detailed model describes the dynamic balance between factors balance to ensure future generations the fair chance to a standard of living.
Key concept – Ecology
From an ecological point of view, a sustainable condition in an area is very much like an area of ecological maturity. Left alone, living systems tend towards ecological maturity. Key characteristics of mature ecosystems include:
• Very little leakage of mineral and biological nutrients
• High degree of capture of energy from the sun
• Retention, of especially of phosphor
• Water flow from the system is minimised, water is held as long as possible before being released as evaporation and transpiration.
• Animal populations in balance with the plant and tree population.
Mature eco-systems are able to provide a wide range of ecological services, like food, timber, firewood, water purification as well as recreational services.
Key concept – Resilience: the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and reorganise while undergoing change, so as to retain essentially the same function, structure, identity and feedbacks
Resilience is perhaps a more useful concept than sustainability. It describes the ability of our society to withstand outside pressures.
Systems for water and food provision need to be resilient, to be able to deal with among other things, climate change, populations pressure and fossil fuel depletion. Applicant’ solutions are judged on the resilience of their solutions. The higher the resilience, the higher the ranking of the application.
Key concept – That the right to water and food is part of human rights
Everyone has the right to a standard of living adequate for the health and well-being of himself and of his family, including food, clothing, housing and medical care and necessary social services, and the right to security in the event of unemployment, sickness, disability, widowhood, old age or other lack of livelihood in circumstances beyond his control. ARTICLE 25. PARAGRAPH ONE OF THE UNIVERSAL DECLARATION OF HUMAN RIGHTS.
“The human right to water is indispensable for leading a life in human dignity. It is a prerequisite for the realization of other human rights” THE UN COMMITTEE ON ECONOMIC, SOCIAL AND CULTURAL RIGHTS
Food and water security are precursors of peace and thereby prosperity.
The state of sustainable development in the world today
The ambitions of sustainable development stated by the Bruntland Commission (above) and today’s situation in the world do not match. In fact, many factors indicate that societies are developing in a worrying counter-sustainable direction.
Inability to feed inhabitants
FIGURES FROM UN:
FAO estimates that 1.02 billion people are undernourished worldwide in 2009. This represents more hungry people than at any time since 1970 and a worsening of the unsatisfactory trends that were present even before the economic crisis. The increase in food insecurity is not a result of poor crop harvests but because high domestic food prices, lower incomes and increasing unemployment have reduced access to food by the poor. In other words, any benefits from falling world cereal prices have been more than offset by the global economic downturn.
Destruction of ecosystems’ ability to provide services
Initiated in 2001, the objective of The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) was to assess the consequences of ecosystem change for human well-being and the scientific basis for actions needed to enhance the conservation and sustainable use of those systems and their contribution to human well-being. Some key messages of this United Nations-backed study:
Among the outstanding problems identified by this assessment are the dire state of many of the world’s fish stocks; the intense vulnerability of the 2 billion people living in dry regions to the loss of ecosystem services, including water supply; and the growing threat to ecosystems from climate change and nutrient pollution.
? Human activities have taken the planet to the edge of a massive wave of species extinctions, further threatening our own well-being.
? The loss of services derived from ecosystems is a significant barrier to the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals to reduce poverty, hunger and disease.
? The pressures on ecosystems will increase globally in coming decades unless human attitudes and actions change.
Lack of self sufficiency, use of ghost and fossil acres in the developed world
The diagram above (courtesy of Transition training UK) shows how food security is achieved in England.
Clearly, all three means create environmental challenges as well as challenges of food distribution equity.
By importing food from other countries, taking from future generations by over-harvesting and by depleting non-renewable energy sources, the UK is living with a counter-sustainable system of food provision.
Vulnerability to fuel prices
Even if food is available, the present system creates inequalities, especially because of price. As fossil fuel is non-renewable, sooner or later demand will exceed supply and prices will soar.
“This (commenting on food price rises due to oil price hikes) is the new face of hunger. There is food on shelves, but people are priced out of the market. There are food riots in countries where we have not seen them before. We will have a significant gap if commodity prices remain this high, and we will need an extra half billion dollars just to meet existing need.” Josette Sheeran, Head of the UN’s World Food Programme February 2008
Lack of resilience in food and water provision systems
Of concern too, is that the arrangements for food provision that have developed over the recent decades lack resilience.
The following comes from Rob Hopkin’s keynote article in the magazine Resurgence No. 257 November/December 2009
Let’s take a supermarket as an example. It may be possible to increase its sustainability and to reduce its carbon emissions by using less packaging, putting solar photovoltaics on the roof and installing more energy-efficient fridges. However, resilience thinking would argue that the closure of local food shops and networks that resulted from the opening of the supermarket, as well as the fact that the store itself only contains two days’ worth of food at any moment – the majority of which has been transported great distances to get there – has massively reduced the resilience of community food security, as well as increasing its oil vulnerability. One extreme, but relevant, example of where sustainability thinking falls short was Tesco’s recent ‘Flights for Lights’ promotion, where people were able to gain air miles when they purchased low-energy light bulbs!
The turning points
Several turning points that impact food provision have happened during the last few decades.
Carbon Dioxide concentrations pass 350 ppm in 1990.
Some climate scientist, including NASA’s own expert James Hansen, believes that levels of carbon dioxide over 350 ppm (part per million) put the climate system in danger of becoming unstable, with uncontrollable warming as one possible result. Already, climate change is forcing many farmers to leave what were once fertile areas. Massive Australian rice farms, that could supply millions with rice, have been forced to close because of drought.
Fossil fuel use in developing countries surpasses that of the OECD in 2005. Competition for fuel is likely to grow, raising prices.
As much as one quarter of the world fossil fuel use is for food provision, food prices are likely to rise too.
The peak of oil production
According to some experts, including Prof. Kjell Aleklett of Uppsala University, Sweden , the peak of oil production is near or been reached already. Again, as populations increase and countries force ahead with their plans for economic development, demand pressures will raise prices, raising food prices in turn.
Agreements to limit fossil fuel use
The recent COP15 Copenhagen Accord sets the stage for reductions in fossil fuel use, which potentially reduces the amount of fuel available for food provision.
The need for true innovation
(The British department of food, DEFRA) … will discover (not so surprisingly) that real food security and real sustainability are in fact one and the same thing. JONATHON PORRITT, FOUNDER DIRECTOR OF FORUM FOR THE FUTURE WWW.FORUMFORTHEFUTURE.ORG, AND CHAIRMAN OF THE UK SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT COMMISSION www.sd-commission.org.uk
There is, therefore need for true innovation to provide solutions to the three challenges to increasing food insecurity:
• Effects of climate change
• Population pressure
• Fossil fuel dependence
The solutions need to be innovative rather than narrow technical solutions as they must work for those who are poor, in areas where fossil fuel may not be available, and where the climate is ever more unpredictable.
References
Report of the World Commission on Environment and Development: Our Common Future
http://www.un-documents.net/wced-ocf.htm
For more information on Ecological maturity,, see System Ecologist Folke Gunther’s website http://www.holon.se/folke/kurs/Ecologicaldevelopment/Maturity_en.shtml
Transition Towns founder Rob Hopkins discusses resilience in relation to the UK government’s plan for a low-carbon society in Resurgence No. 257 November/December 2009
http://transitionculture.org/wp-content/uploads/keynotes_resilience_2571.pdf
Uppsala University: http://www.tsl.uu.se/uhdsg/Publications.html
the UK Sustainable Development Commission www.sd-commission.org.uk
Posted by steve on January 13, 2010
On holiday recently I had a real serendipity experience with a couple of books.
Part of the research for the blog involved looking at books which took a similar approach – that is to say envisioning a sustainable future in order to stimulate thought leadership. Imagine my surprise when I walked into a tiny village near the holiday cottage I was renting to see a book town library.
Why serendipity? Well book towns was an idea Book town founder Richard Booth got back in the 60s when he met a descendant of author of Utopia, Sir Thomas More. She ( I forget her name) turned up in a pony and trap. Booth’s insight was that that second hand books are “a re-saleable economy with a product which has no sell-by date and is available in its billions”.
Villages would concentrate on book binding, antique book shops, writers’ circles and so on. This particular book town housed a rather eccentric form of bookstore: the books were arranged by colour of binding. The blue room was especially overwhelming.
I found a book on Utopia, and Brave New World Revisited, by Aldous Huxley.
Brave New World was written in the 1930s, before the second world war and the explosion of population growth. I guess it is a book with a purpose similar to this blog - to enable thought about the future by envisioning different outcomes.
In Brave New World revisited from 1950, Aldous Huxley talks about how his book tried to warn people of the threats of overpopulation and urbanization together with a desire for the GOOD ORDER. This urban pressure, bringing so many individuals together, would encourage the mindset that sees people more as insects. This in turn leads to dehumanizing of society, albeit the basic intention may have been good. He goes on to reflect how his predictions were coming true even faster than he thought possible.
Amazing power of foresight that man had: the world population passed 50% living in urban environments around 2005. And look at how so many sit of an evening alone in the blue light of the TV screen.
Let’s consider insects as a societal model: every individual has a specific task to perform. If she does not perform it she is punished and evicted from the insect society by soldier individuals. Individuals in insect communities are born into their roles, which are not learned but genetic. That an insect community survives has much to do with how each individual performs their tasks exactly in conjunction with the others, where simple patterns of communication go on between each individual.
So you could say that insects’ culture is inherited and adapted to their situation.
There’s more: a few days earlier I had sat transfixed in front of a nature programme on TV about killer whales.
These whales are the most widespread species of mammal after man. They are extremely adaptable. In some areas they eat small fish, in others larger ones. Some live on dolphins, others on seals. Each group of whales has developed their own patterns of behaviour which require complex communication (for hunting in packs) and teaching. Behaviour of one pack of whales in one situation, like the ones who live on seals, is completely different from the ones who, for example, live on small fish. And the behaviour and communication are learned.
The programme described how “playful” the whales are. They experiment. When radar and sonar techniques meant fishing boats could get to the fish before the whales researchers thought whales would starve. But before long, the whales had worked out that fishing boats were travelling toward the big shoals, so they went in that direction and got there before them. They didn’t starve.
So mammalian culture is learnt, developed and passed on to coming generations. Playfulness and experimentation is required for the group to adapt to its circumstances. And communication and learning are key.
So I learned a lot on my holiday – two books in the spirit of PORENA – and that any societal development towards forming human society in the pattern of insects is going against our nature.
And confirmation of my original observation: that it is through the development of our culture that we will survive, not through the promulgation of mechanistic solutions that see humans as insects.
We need to play, experiment, work together, communicate and pass on what we know that is appropriate to the next generation. How I don’t know. Only that we must,
Posted by steve on January 11, 2010
Attending a recent workshop on sustainable development and regional development, I got involved in a working group looking at the challenge of connecting people and sustainability. The whole exercise gave food for thought so I thought I would share my notes here on my blog.
Suppose you were on the management team of an organization that was failing to live up to the expectations of its owners and, more worrying, showed even less prospects of doing it in the future. What would you do? How would you approach the challenge?
One approach is to use six sigma tools and the process called SIX SIGMA RDMAIC. Here is an overview:
- Recognize what is most important for your organization, and identify the key initiatives that will have the most impact to your organization.
- Define the problem, the voice of the customer, and the project goals, specifically.
- Measure key aspects of the current process and collect relevant data.
- Analyze the data to investigate and verify cause-and-effect relationships. Determine what the relationships are, and attempt to ensure that all factors have been considered. Seek out root cause of the defect under investigation.
- Improve or optimize the current process based upon data analysis using techniques such as design of experiments, poka yoke or mistake proofing, and standard work to create a new, future state process. Set up pilot runs to establish process capability.
- Control the future state process to ensure that any deviations from target are corrected before they result in defects. Control systems are implemented such as statistical process control, production boards, and visual workplaces and the process is continuously monitored.
Each of these steps has a whole tool-kit associated with them. you can choose tools from the tool-kit and use them separately, or choose to run the whole RDMAIC process using several tools for each step.
Suppose the organization was Europe. And the management team recognises that Europe is well on the path of coutner sustainabiltiy and will face major problems related to resource and envrinmental depletion, and that more economic gowth will not guarantee better living.
Our group took a couple of the tools of six sigma and applied them to defining the problem. The first tool is called asking why five times. You can read more on this tool here.
Here are the results of our group’s work which was given the issue: People in Europe not connected to sustainability
- Why? Because they do not know about it or ways to support it
- Why not? Because they have not come into contact with it in their lives
- Why not? Because none of the major contact points include it or are set up to encompass it
- Why not? Because they would become politically unpopular or economically non-viable if they did
- Why is that? Their organisations find themselves in such a context for historical reasons
To analyse the root causes further, we applied the tool called an (Ishikawa Diagram) or a (Cause-and-Effect Diagram) or a (Fishbone Diagram)
(Click on the diagram to enlarge it.) This exercise was extremely uncomfortable to do. The more we discussed, the more we could see how the very fabric of society is imbued with counter sustainability, from deepest held beliefs to physical infrastructure. As an individual, even with years of working with sustainability behind you, you live in a world that is talking and acting as if action on sustainability is not urgent, indeed it is under discussion if it is needed at all. And well inside any conference room in a gathering of sustainability- oriented individuals, the way forward is often still something for discussion.
These findings were given the title “the uncomfortable truths”.
Standard practice is to study which areas to prioritize, and to create an improvement or remediation plan.
In our case, the aims of the conference host CURE, the Convention for Urban and Rural Europe are:
- to offer – at the time of the Mid-Term Reviews of EU programmes in 2008-9 – recommendation on policy frameworks and measures which will assist a sustainable approach to the future of urban and rural areas in Europe, achieved through effective partnership between governments and civil society
- to build a partnership of organisations who are committed to building sustainable urban-rural relations throughout Europe
Studying the diagram, we felt the root causes we could influence were
- Indicators
- Information and education
- Paradigms
- Policies
To get started on working with these root causes the deepest held beliefs – our paradigms – is an obvious place to start.
To return to the Management Team analogy for one second: corporations often face this problem, that deep–seated beliefs that have been at the root of the very success of the organization no longer apply in a changed business environment. The process of addressing them is one of the cornerstones of the work of management guru Peter Senge, which he terms “mental models”.
The discipline of mental models starts with turning the mirror inward; learning to unearth our internal pictures of the world, to bring them to the surface and hold them rigorously to scrutiny. It also includes the ability to carry on ‘learningful’ conversations that balance inquiry and advocacy, where people expose their own thinking effectively and make that thinking open to the influence of others. (Senge 1990: 9)
One simple exercise is to have a two column list. On the left, the paradigm or mental model. On the right, reasons why it is counter productive given the current or future expected environment.
The notes below show how far we came in our session.
| PARADIGM |
INAPPROPRIATENESS |
| We need to reach a level of economic growth in order to be able to clean up our society |
Drives economic growth further, and more counter.sustainable investment |
| Green means putting back progress |
People become negative to change |
| People NEED cars |
Sustainability becomes “what can we put in our fuel tanks” |
Posted by steve on December 30, 2009
Link to cartoon from Folke
Thanks to all my readers for 2009! And I look forward to more exciting developments towards sustainability in 2010. HAPPY NEW SUSTAINABLE YEAR!
Back around the 13th Jan.
Posted by steve on December 26, 2009
What follows is the tapescript of an imagestreaming session aimed at furthering my understanding of grey water purification. This is session two. I have chosen to use the technique of imagestreaming rather than just searching the Internet as I find it provides me with deeper insights, and that it offers more innovative solutions.
Last time, I learned how to make a water cleaning installation using vegetable growing boxes stacked together to form an arrangement rather like a water feature. Although I can say the imagestream took me some way to understanding grey water purification, it also raised a whole string of questions. One major concern was that I saw no way to actually recycle the water once cleaned. Neither did I get an idea of how to collect grey water for redistribution through this feature.
The Quest; to visit a place that uses single-house grey water systems; they grow vegetables in the installation, in a climate like ours that freezes. I need to see how they collect the grey water and what happens to it. This place should have more water fall down as rain than they use. One of the reasons for doing this is to be able to make a proposal for the eco-unit. I feel it would be a good thing to be able to implement a one-dwelling solution as an experiment.
I close my eyes and am instantly in the waiting area I visited last time. The facilitator is beside me. He tells me I should write a book about facilitating. I nod without committing myself.
He says, “That last place was wishful thinking…a sales exhibition. The city of Porena solved grey water recycling, come back there with me.”
“OK,” I agree, and off we walk to the train station.
On the train, going through a tunnel I study his clothes and notice he has gardening boots on.
He reads my thoughts; “There’s always gardening to do!”
We leave the train at the relocalisation centre. This is an information center I met earlier, housing exhibitions and training centres to help individuals and communities relocalize their living arrangements to address climate change and fossil fuel depletion as well as to create sustainable communities. As we pass the reception the receptionist, dressed in Swedish national dress, curtsies.
The facilitator leans over and says in a low voice, “You need to go to a demo house – where they show every pipe and connection so you don’t need to rip floors up to understand the way it works.”
We walk over to the demo house and I see what he means. All the pipes are visible. I ponder that showing pipes and the way things are constructed might be part of sustainability, but can’t really explain why. I start at the sink and look under it, tracing the pipe to a three way valve located just inside the outer wall. The shower upstairs connects into it.
For demonstration purposes they have a village solution and an individual house solution.
Schematic view from above
In one position of three way valve, the grey water flows to the individual water cleaning solution, and in the other to the communal system. I follow the individual solution pipe to just outside the house.
The pipe leads into an underground storage tank, where the water first pours through a plastic net basket that collects the worst grunge. You need to empty it once a fortnight. The tank is concrete, far enough under ground to keep it away from frost. And if it froze it would overflow anyway and not cause too much damage.
The facilitator told me to work out the water consumption that would flow through this installation. He also pointed out you want the water to turn over in the pit and not to stay around. Anyway, keeping the water away from the house is important.
Close by is a small shed, where the water is pumped up into a plastic tank. A float valve arrangement keeps the water at a certain height and pressure.
“You need some central control point,” the facilitator points out.
This house feeds the whole garden. All grey water flows out from the back of the shed via pipes to where it is needed. One pipe goes to the stepped boxes, another branches off to other parts of the garden. These boxes form a three-sided pyramid. Grey water is pumped onto the top box; from there it slowly trickles through all boxes, being cleaned by the roots of the plants. At the bottom the water collects into a pond.
Side view of growing box solution
The water in this pond overflows through a sand bed into the rest of the garden. Finally, any excess water ends up in a ditch that goes round the periphery of the property. As vegetables need a steady flow of water, the cleaned water is pumped back to mix with grey water. The collecting tank in the distribution shed has two compartments. The water trickles out from the tank. When it is empty the pumps start again to fill it. A sensor at the bottom of the tank senses it is empty and starts the pump. You could run the whole thing from solar cells that charge the battery and run the pump.
Side view of vegetable patch and tree and shrub solution
The other pipe takes the grey water going to the vegetable patch. It is discharged into a layer of gravel under about six inches of soil. The slope is designed to be 4 percent. The roots of the plants grow downwards onto the gravel and pick up all the nutrients they need form the grey water, cleaning it at the same time.
Water leaving the vegetable patches flows to the trees, shrubs and ornamental plants. The growing beds drain out on the highest point on a slope above the shrubs. It ends in a kind of French drain on contour, or rather like a half of a French drain. Water flows out into gravel in a trench, the side facing the upper slope beings covered with waterproof sheeting, This ensures the water diffuses down the slope.
I also note that the source of the water coming from the house is mostly rainwater. This puzzles me as I cannot see how enough rain falls on roofs to satisfy the needs of the average household. I need to calculate theoretical yields and come back with my questions. The sensible thing would be to collect rain water, and also send cleaned water from the garden feature back to the house. More of that for next time.
Things that surprised me.
I was surprised that a small shed was needed to distribute the water. I guess you could combine it with a garden tools shed. But I understand the importance of keeping it from freezing. The dispensing arrangement surprised me, I still have not worked out how it works. I was also pleasantly surprised by the simplicity of the arrangement.
Things to try immediately.
I could try to make a garden feature from cast concrete boxes with drainage holes.
Questions to research more.
How much water actually falls as rainwater, and can you use it without purifying it somehow? How to collect rainwater and recycle it back to the house. Maybe I need to understand a little better how to make concrete growing boxes. And I must work out how this plastic dispenser tank works, it seems to have two compartments and sensors and to be the control room of the whole set-up.
